Nate Silver

Hardcover (1 to 2 lbs)

California

Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't

UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

The Signal and the Noise

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David Platt

Daniel L. Akin

Tony Merida

Paperback (1 to 2 lbs)

Edited by David Platt, Daniel L. Akin, and Tony Merida, this new commentary series, projected to be 48 volumes, takes a Christ- centered approach to expositing each book of the Bible. Rather than a verse-by-verse approach, the authors have crafted chapters that explain and apply key passages in their assigned Bible books. Readers will learn to see Christ in all aspects of Scripture, and they will be encouraged by the devotional nature of each exposition. Projected contributors to the series include notable authors such as Russell D. Moore, Al Mohler, Matt Chandler, Francis Chan, Mark Dever, and others.

Exalting Jesus in 1 and 2 Timothy and Titus

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John C. Maxwell

Light Hardcover (1 lb or less)

Change Your Thinking, Change Your Life

Gather successful people from all walks of life-what would they have in common? The way they think! Now you can think as they do and revolutionize your work and life! A Wall Street Journal bestseller, HOW SUCCESSFUL PEOPLE THINK is the perfect, compact read for today's fast-paced world. America's leadership expert John C. Maxwell will teach you how to be more creative and when to question popular thinking. You'll learn how to capture the big picture while focusing your thinking. You'll find out how to tap into your creative potential, develop shared ideas, and derive lessons from the past to better understand the future. With these eleven keys to more effective thinking, you'll clearly see the path to personal success.

How Successful People Think

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Stormie Omartian

Michael Omartian

Light Paperback (1 lb or less)

Offers men inspirational guidance on praying for their wife's spiritual growth, career, relationships with family, health, and finances, and explains how God can strengthen marriages through such prayers.

The Power of a Praying® Husband

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Carl White

Kevin Gillespie

Sue Woodard

A Proven System to Make the Calls You Need to Get the Business You Want

If you could double your application volume in the next 12 weeks, would it be worth it to you to read this book? Call reluctance for loan officers can be summed up in two sentences:"Fear is peeing in your pants. Courage is doing what you need to do with wet pants on."~ Carl WhiteSeriously, everybody feels the fear - truly everybody. Even the most confident top producer who is making sales all day long on the phone may look fearless, but they're not. They feel the fear and do what needs to be done with wet pants on. Being brave isn't easy but it does get easier over time. By the time you finish reading this book, you are going to have new insights, a fresh perspective, some tricks you can use to bypass your limiting beliefs and you will be able to pick up the phone or go make some sales calls and have conversations a whole lot easier. We aren't the flashiest guys but we know this industry. We have worked with thousands of loan officers who have claimed their readiness to help more people and live the lifestyle they want with the right income to support it. Now we are taking what we know how to do - to generate sales volume through direct sales - to help loan officers like you get ahead. When you make a simple mental shift, you can accelerate your results and change lives - yours and everyone's life you touch through your business. And it can happen fast when you work with the system we're about to teach you.

Crushing Call Reluctance for Loan Officers

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Case Studies from Top-Producers

Challenges Make ChampionsYour Dream Loan Mortgage Business Grows Through Adversity The fastest path to success is to learn from those who have already experienced it. Discover how ten of America's top-producing loan officers have become champions by confronting and resolving challenges through strategic thinking, relationships, humility, perseverance, systems, coaching, and just plain work. This book holds the insider secrets to success for loan officers looking to gain time and financial freedom and, frankly, to just have more fun in business. Not only will you find real-world case studies and proven strategies, you'll learn the inspiration that fueled these top producers during the tough times that every loan officer inevitably has in business. Jen Conley | Suzanne Downs | Robert Fillyaw | Heath Goodrich | Scott Griffin |Chris Haynes | John Hinks | Brett Lindquist | Roger McGuire | Tammy Saul | Hakim SingletonThese loan officer champions have faced daunting odds in building their now super-successful mortgage businesses. Learn the mindset of what it takes to develop and grow your mortgage business from the best in our business. When you do, you'll find that resolving challenges is the path to growing a top-producing business so you can become the next Loan Officer Champion.

Loan Officer Champions

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Oswald Chambers

"I am determined to be absolutely and entirely for Him and for Him alone." So says Oswald Chambers in the first of the daily devotions in My Utmost for His Highest. This attitude of complete surrender to God pervades the work, the most popular devotional book ever published. In the words of former U. S. Senate chaplain Richard Halverson, "No other book except the Bible has influenced my walk with Christ at such deep and maturing levels." Now in a deluxe collector's edition, the value of Chambers' words of truth can be treasured for a lifetime.

My Utmost for His Highest

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Peter Scazzero

Warren Bird

8 Studies for Groups or Individuals

The Emotionally Healthy Church

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Jen Hatmaker

When Jesus Wrecks Your Comfortable Christianity

The author describes how God interrupted her comfortable faith and awoke in her a "holy passion" to serve the least, the forgotten, and the forsaken.

Interrupted

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7 Experiments Against Excess

Why do we pursue more when we'd be happier with less? In this updated edition of 7, now in hardcover for the first time, New York Times bestselling author Jen Hatmaker tells the story of how she and her family tried to combat overindulgence--and what they learned along the way about living a truly meaningful life. Simple & Free is the true story of how Jen Hatmaker (along with her family) identified seven areas of excess--food, clothes, spending, media, possessions, waste, and stress--and made seven simple choices to fight back against the modern-day diseases of greed, materialism, and overindulgence. So, what's the payoff from living a deeply reduced life? It's the discovery of a greatly increased connection with God--a call toward simplicity and generosity that transcends social experiment to become a radically better life. In this new edition, written not just for readers of faith but for everyone who craves a gentler, simpler life, Hatmaker shares how sustainability and generosity still impact and challenge her today. Annotated throughout with new reflections from the author, this book offers thoughtful insights on the vastly different world of Simple & Free from back when it was first published as 7, and considers the dramatically different space Hatmaker occupies now. Simple & Free is funny, raw, and not a guilt trip in the making. Come along and discover what Jesus' version of rich, blessed, and generous might look like in your life.

Simple and Free

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Jonathan Franzen

Heavy Hardcover (2 to 4 lbs)

A Novel

Freedom

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Anne Lamott

Some Thoughts on Faith

Combining elements of spiritual study and memoir, the author describes her odyssey of faith, drawing on her own sometimes troubled past to explore the many ways in which faith sustains and guides one's daily life

Traveling Mercies

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Charles Duhigg

Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business

The Power of Habit

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Pamela Druckerman

One American Mother Discovers the Wisdom of French Parenting (now with Bébé Day by Day: 100 Keys to French Parenting)

Bringing up Bébé

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N. D. Wilson

After his parents are kidnapped, timid twelve-year-old Henry York leaves his sheltered Boston life and moves to small-town Kansas, where he and his cousin Henrietta discover and explore hidden doors in his attic room that seem to open onto other worlds.

100 Cupboards (100 Cupboards Book 1)

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Rebecca McLaughlin

12 Hard Questions for the World's Largest Religion

Addressing 12 controversial issues about Christianity--the Bible's teaching on gender and sexuality, the reality of heaven and hell, and more--this book shows how current psychological and scientific research actually aligns with teaching from the Bible.

Confronting Christianity

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Franny and Zooey

Brett McCracken

The Awkward and Essential Challenge of Christian Community

Uncomfortable

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R. C. Sproul

This book by R.C. Sproul is a look at the meaning of holiness and why people are both fascinated and terrified by a holy God. It is a profound, moving investigation of the character of God which defines all we are and do as Christians.

The Holiness of God

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Ted Dekker

The Birth of Evil

Thomas Hunter narrowly survives a shooting attempt only to awaken in an alternate universe of green forests, a world to which he subsequently travels every time he goes to sleep.

Black

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Timothy Keller

Connecting Your Work to God's Work

New York Times bestselling author of The Prodigal Prophet Timothy Keller shows how God calls on each of us to express meaning and purpose through our work and careers.

"A touchstone of the [new evangelical] movement." --The New York Times

Tim Keller, pastor of New York's Redeemer Presbyterian Church and the New York Times bestselling author of The Reason for God, has taught and counseled students, young professionals, and senior leaders on the subject of work and calling for more than twenty years. Now he pulls his insights into a thoughtful and practical book for readers everywhere.

With deep conviction and often surprising advice, Keller shows readers that biblical wisdom is immensely relevant to our questions about work today. In fact, the Christian view of work--that we work to serve others, not ourselves--can provide the foundation of a thriving professional and balanced personal life. Keller shows how excellence, integrity, discipline, creativity, and passion in the workplace can help others and even be considered acts of worship--not just of self-interest.

Every Good Endeavor

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L. B. E. Cowman

365 Devotions

Combining the two beloved classic devotionals Streams in the Desert and Springs in the Valley into one deluxe package, Streams in the Desert Morning and Evening: 366 Devotions will speak to your soul with the timeless truth of the Word of God.

Streams in the Desert Morning and Evening

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Rob Green

A Premarital Guide to a Strong and Lasting Marriage

Because the Marriage Matters Even More than the Wedding Every engaged couple hopes to build a lasting and satisfying marriage, but it doesn't happen automatically. This interactive premarital study explores how key issues like conflict, communication, finances, and intimacy are successfully navigated in a Christ-centered marriage. The nine-session study helps a new generation of newlyweds build their marriage on the lasting foundation of God's grace. Book jacket.

Browse by categories

Nate Silver

The Signal and the Noise

David Platt; Daniel L. Akin; Tony Merida

Exalting Jesus in 1 and 2 Timothy and Titus

John C. Maxwell

How Successful People Think

Stormie Omartian; Michael Omartian

The Power of a Praying® Husband

Carl White; Kevin Gillespie; Sue Woodard

Crushing Call Reluctance for Loan Officers

Carl White

Loan Officer Champions

Oswald Chambers

My Utmost for His Highest

Peter Scazzero; Warren Bird

The Emotionally Healthy Church

Jen Hatmaker

Interrupted

Jen Hatmaker

Simple and Free

Jonathan Franzen

Freedom

Anne Lamott

Traveling Mercies

Charles Duhigg

The Power of Habit

Pamela Druckerman

Bringing up Bébé

N. D. Wilson

100 Cupboards (100 Cupboards Book 1)

Rebecca McLaughlin

Confronting Christianity

J.D. Salinger

Franny and Zooey

Brett McCracken

Uncomfortable

R. C. Sproul

The Holiness of God

Ted Dekker

Black

Timothy Keller

Every Good Endeavor

L. B. E. Cowman

Streams in the Desert Morning and Evening

Rob Green

Tying the Knot

C. S. Lewis

Mere Christianity

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